System, method and program product for scheduling interventions on allocated resources with minimized client impacts

ABSTRACT

A system, method and program product for applying interventions to allocated resources intervention impacts identified and minimized. After receiving a change request requesting changes involving shared resources, elements affected by implementing the requested change are identified. Individual impacts to elements in each layer are determined moment by moment during a selected time frame, and overall impact to client activity is determined from individual impacts for the entire time frame. From the overall impact, a time may be identified within the time frame that has a minimum overall impact for implementing the requested change.

CROSS REFERENCE TO RELATED APPLICATION

The present invention is a divisional of U.S. patent application Ser.No. 14/645,399, “SYSTEM, METHOD AND PROGRAM PRODUCT FOR SCHEDULINGINTERVENTIONS ON ALLOCATED RESOURCES WITH MINIMIZED CLIENT IMPACTS” toVictor F. Cavalcante et al., filed Mar. 11, 2015, assigned to theassignee of the present invention and incorporated herein by reference.

BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION Field of the Invention

The present invention is related to maintaining up to date allocatedshared resources and more particularly to selecting an optimal time forapplying pending patches and updates to virtual machines, software andhardware satisfying resource sharing requests with minimal delay anddisruption in infrastructure, and in application and business processes.

Background Description

Acquiring, managing and maintaining Information Technology (IT) is amajor budgetary concern for any modern organization. Moreover, sinceorganizations seldom use local physical hardware (e.g., mainframeservers) at full capacity, frequently, some capacity is wasted. Toreduce IT infrastructure and applications costs and waste, instead ofacquiring physical hardware, organizations are increasinglyconsolidating workload on shared hardware, using virtual machines (VMs)hosted on provider servers or computers.

Ideally, each VM appears as an independent computer (e.g., a virtualprocessor, memory and disk space) running, for example, an operatingsystem (OS) and a software stack with one or more active softwareelements (e.g., applications or other software). As with any state ofthe art computer system, virtual machines require periodic and aperiodicincident fixes, including hardware and software updates and patcheseffected in what are known as interventions. Thus, a typicalintervention may fix hardware, patch bugs and security weaknesses, patchsoftware features and/or effect environment changes that may be ofcritical importance.

Worldwide enterprises, such as the stock exchange and multinationalbanks, increasingly use VMs in reliance on cloud based applications,such as business-to-business (B2B) or business-to-consumer (B2C)applications. These enterprises use typical B2B and B2C applicationsincluding, for example, for banking transactions, payment solutions,logistics, maintaining Internet based stores, and managing factoryautomated processes. A mistimed intervention, however, can be costly toprovisioned for B2B or B2C applications, directly affecting clientbusiness revenues and diminishing the provider's reputation.Consequently, provider IT system planning and management have givenpriority to selecting an intervention time either to minimize the impactof applying interventions, or to prioritizing applying interventionstightly scheduled in consideration of client needs.

Previously, in scheduling these interventions IT system planning andmanagement support have relied on isolated impact analysis. IT supportevaluated how interventions impacted individual infrastructure elementsand applications to make educated guesses of how businesses areimpacted, e.g., based on experience gathered from experts and customerfeedback. Using the evaluation results, IT support can predict thebreadth and depth of the effects on an organization from interventionmodifications, especially in the context of service management.Unfortunately, however, there is a dearth of end-to-end knowledge forcomplex systems and deployed applications. Moreover, configurationinformation may be incomplete or stale. This has made it difficult toassess overall intervention impact, and to evaluate system failureimpacts from the customer's point of view. Consequently, organizationsinfrequently select the optimal time to apply interventions, andfrequently select less than optimum times, unnecessarily andsignificantly impact business customers.

Thus, there is a need for determining the time to apply interventions toIT system resources to minimize potential system impact, and moreparticularly, there is a need for considering all shared resourceelements that may be affected by an intervention in determining theoptimum time to apply the intervention for minimized impact on systemclients.

SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

A feature of the invention is a time determinable to schedule systeminterventions to minimize impact to client operations;

Another feature of the invention is impacts to client operationspre-determined over a time period for determining an optimal time toschedule system interventions to minimize impact to client operations;

Yet another feature of the invention is layer by layer impacts to systemelements, e.g., in a cloud environment, are determined moment by momentover a time period for projecting overall impacts on client operationsto pre-determine an optimal time to schedule cloud system interventionsto minimize intervention impact to client operations.

The present invention relates to a system, method and program productfor applying interventions to allocated resources. After receiving achange request requesting changes involving shared resources, elementsaffected by implementing the requested change are identified. Individualimpacts to elements in each layer are determined moment by moment duringa selected time frame, and overall impact to client activity isdetermined from individual impacts for the entire time frame. From theoverall impact, a time may be identified within the time frame that hasa minimum overall impact for implementing the requested change.

BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS

The foregoing and other objects, aspects and advantages will be betterunderstood from the following detailed description of a preferredembodiment of the invention with reference to the drawings, in which:

FIG. 1 depicts a cloud computing node according to an embodiment of thepresent invention;

FIG. 2 depicts a cloud computing environment according to an embodimentof the present invention;

FIG. 3 depicts abstraction model layers according to an embodiment ofthe present invention;

FIG. 4 shows an example of an impact estimation support tool forquantifying the potential overall impact of interventions at discreteinstances or intervals during a selected time window, according to apreferred embodiment of the present invention;

FIG. 5 shows an example of service level management and SLA planning andfulfillment support teams using the impact estimation support tool toquantify the potential overall impact of interventions over a given timewindow;

FIGS. 6A and B show a simple example of application of the presentinvention to a cloud providing business process support to a top tierbank and a severity ticket showing the average impact resulting from anintervention on two infrastructure layer servers supporting the bank;

FIG. 7 shows an example of a typical graphical user interface (GUI) forgraphically indicating the overall impact.

DESCRIPTION OF PREFERRED EMBODIMENTS

The present invention may be a system, a method, and/or a computerprogram product. The computer program product may include a computerreadable storage medium (or media) having computer readable programinstructions thereon for causing a processor to carry out aspects of thepresent invention.

The computer readable storage medium can be a tangible device that canretain and store instructions for use by an instruction executiondevice. The computer readable storage medium may be, for example, but isnot limited to, an electronic storage device, a magnetic storage device,an optical storage device, an electromagnetic storage device, asemiconductor storage device, or any suitable combination of theforegoing. A non-exhaustive list of more specific examples of thecomputer readable storage medium includes the following: a portablecomputer diskette, a hard disk, a random access memory (RAM), aread-only memory (ROM), an erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROMor Flash memory), a static random access memory (SRAM), a portablecompact disc read-only memory (CD-ROM), a digital versatile disk (DVD),a memory stick, a floppy disk, a mechanically encoded device such aspunch-cards or raised structures in a groove having instructionsrecorded thereon, and any suitable combination of the foregoing. Acomputer readable storage medium, as used herein, is not to be construedas being transitory signals per se, such as radio waves or other freelypropagating electromagnetic waves, electromagnetic waves propagatingthrough a waveguide or other transmission media (e.g., light pulsespassing through a fiber-optic cable), or electrical signals transmittedthrough a wire.

Computer readable program instructions described herein can bedownloaded to respective computing/processing devices from a computerreadable storage medium or to an external computer or external storagedevice via a network, for example, the Internet, a local area network, awide area network and/or a wireless network. The network may comprisecopper transmission cables, optical transmission fibers, wirelesstransmission, routers, firewalls, switches, gateway computers and/oredge servers. A network adapter card or network interface in eachcomputing/processing device receives computer readable programinstructions from the network and forwards the computer readable programinstructions for storage in a computer readable storage medium withinthe respective computing/processing device.

Computer readable program instructions for carrying out operations ofthe present invention may be assembler instructions,instruction-set-architecture (ISA) instructions, machine instructions,machine dependent instructions, microcode, firmware instructions,state-setting data, or either source code or object code written in anycombination of one or more programming languages, including an objectoriented programming language such as Smalltalk, C++ or the like, andconventional procedural programming languages, such as the “C”programming language or similar programming languages. The computerreadable program instructions may execute entirely on the user'scomputer, partly on the user's computer, as a stand-alone softwarepackage, partly on the user's computer and partly on a remote computeror entirely on the remote computer or server. In the latter scenario,the remote computer may be connected to the user's computer through anytype of network, including a local area network (LAN) or a wide areanetwork (WAN), or the connection may be made to an external computer(for example, through the Internet using an Internet Service Provider).In some embodiments, electronic circuitry including, for example,programmable logic circuitry, field-programmable gate arrays (FPGA), orprogrammable logic arrays (PLA) may execute the computer readableprogram instructions by utilizing state information of the computerreadable program instructions to personalize the electronic circuitry,in order to perform aspects of the present invention.

Aspects of the present invention are described herein with reference toflowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus(systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of theinvention. It will be understood that each block of the flowchartillustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in theflowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented bycomputer readable program instructions.

These computer readable program instructions may be provided to aprocessor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, orother programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, suchthat the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computeror other programmable data processing apparatus, create means forimplementing the functions/acts specified in the flowchart and/or blockdiagram block or blocks. These computer readable program instructionsmay also be stored in a computer readable storage medium that can directa computer, a programmable data processing apparatus, and/or otherdevices to function in a particular manner, such that the computerreadable storage medium having instructions stored therein comprises anarticle of manufacture including instructions which implement aspects ofthe function/act specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram blockor blocks.

The computer readable program instructions may also be loaded onto acomputer, other programmable data processing apparatus, or other deviceto cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer,other programmable apparatus or other device to produce a computerimplemented process, such that the instructions which execute on thecomputer, other programmable apparatus, or other device implement thefunctions/acts specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block orblocks.

The flowchart and block diagrams in the Figures illustrate thearchitecture, functionality, and operation of possible implementationsof systems, methods, and computer program products according to variousembodiments of the present invention. In this regard, each block in theflowchart or block diagrams may represent a module, segment, or portionof instructions, which comprises one or more executable instructions forimplementing the specified logical function(s). In some alternativeimplementations, the functions noted in the block may occur out of theorder noted in the figures. For example, two blocks shown in successionmay, in fact, be executed substantially concurrently, or the blocks maysometimes be executed in the reverse order, depending upon thefunctionality involved. It will also be noted that each block of theblock diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, and combinations of blocksin the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, can be implementedby special purpose hardware-based systems that perform the specifiedfunctions or acts or carry out combinations of special purpose hardwareand computer instructions.

It is further understood in advance that although this disclosureincludes a detailed description on cloud computing, implementation ofthe teachings recited herein are not limited to a cloud computingenvironment. Rather, embodiments of the present invention are capable ofbeing implemented in conjunction with any other type of computingenvironment now known or later developed and as further indicatedhereinbelow.

Cloud computing is a model of service delivery for enabling convenient,on-demand network access to a shared pool of configurable computingresources (e.g. networks, network bandwidth, servers, processing,memory, storage, applications, virtual machines, and services) that canbe rapidly provisioned and released with minimal management effort orinteraction with a provider of the service. This cloud model may includeat least five characteristics, at least three service models, and atleast four deployment models.

Characteristics are as follows:

On-demand self-service: a cloud consumer can unilaterally provisioncomputing capabilities, such as server time and network storage, asneeded automatically without requiring human interaction with theservice's provider.

Broad network access: capabilities are available over a network andaccessed through standard mechanisms that promote use by heterogeneousthin or thick client platforms (e.g., mobile phones, laptops, and PDAs).

Resource pooling: the provider's computing resources are pooled to servemultiple consumers using a multi-tenant model, with different physicaland virtual resources dynamically assigned and reassigned according todemand. There is a sense of location independence in that the consumergenerally has no control or knowledge over the exact location of theprovided resources but may be able to specify location at a higher levelof abstraction (e.g., country, state, or datacenter).

Rapid elasticity: capabilities can be rapidly and elasticallyprovisioned, in some cases automatically, to quickly scale out andrapidly released to quickly scale in. To the consumer, the capabilitiesavailable for provisioning often appear to be unlimited and can bepurchased in any quantity at any time.

Measured service: cloud systems automatically control and optimizeresource use by leveraging a metering capability at some level ofabstraction appropriate to the type of service (e.g., storage,processing, bandwidth, and active user accounts). Resource usage can bemonitored, controlled, and reported providing transparency for both theprovider and consumer of the utilized service.

Service Models are as follows:

Software as a Service (SaaS): the capability provided to the consumer isto use the provider's applications running on a cloud infrastructure.The applications are accessible from various client devices through athin client interface such as a web browser (e.g., web-based e-mail).The consumer does not manage or control the underlying cloudinfrastructure including network, servers, operating systems, storage,or even individual application capabilities, with the possible exceptionof limited user-specific application configuration settings.

Platform as a Service (PaaS): the capability provided to the consumer isto deploy onto the cloud infrastructure consumer-created or acquiredapplications created using programming languages and tools supported bythe provider. The consumer does not manage or control the underlyingcloud infrastructure including networks, servers, operating systems, orstorage, but has control over the deployed applications and possiblyapplication hosting environment configurations.

Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS): the capability provided to theconsumer is to provision processing, storage, networks, and otherfundamental computing resources where the consumer is able to deploy andrun arbitrary software, which can include operating systems andapplications. The consumer does not manage or control the underlyingcloud infrastructure but has control over operating systems, storage,deployed applications, and possibly limited control of select networkingcomponents or elements (e.g., host firewalls).

Deployment Models are as follows:

Private cloud: the cloud infrastructure is operated solely for anorganization. It may be managed by the organization or a third party andmay exist on-premises or off-premises.

Community cloud: the cloud infrastructure is shared by severalorganizations and supports a specific community that has shared concerns(e.g., mission, security requirements, policy, and complianceconsiderations). It may be managed by the organizations or a third partyand may exist on-premises or off-premises.

Public cloud: the cloud infrastructure is made available to the generalpublic or a large industry group and is owned by an organization sellingcloud services.

Hybrid cloud: the cloud infrastructure is a composition of two or moreclouds (private, community, or public) that remain unique entities butare bound together by standardized or proprietary technology thatenables data and application portability (e.g., cloud bursting forload-balancing between clouds).

A cloud computing environment is service oriented with a focus onstatelessness, low coupling, modularity, and semantic interoperability.At the heart of cloud computing is an infrastructure comprising anetwork of interconnected nodes.

Referring now to FIG. 1, a schematic of an example of a cloud computingnode is shown. Cloud computing node 10 is only one example of a suitablecloud computing node and is not intended to suggest any limitation as tothe scope of use or functionality of embodiments of the inventiondescribed herein. Regardless, cloud computing node 10 is capable ofbeing implemented and/or performing any of the functionality set forthhereinabove.

In cloud computing node 10 there is a computer system/server 12, whichis operational with numerous other general purpose or special purposecomputing system environments or configurations. Examples of well-knowncomputing systems, environments, and/or configurations that may besuitable for use with computer system/server 12 include, but are notlimited to, personal computer systems, server computer systems, thinclients, thick clients, hand-held or laptop devices, multiprocessorsystems, microprocessor-based systems, set top boxes, programmableconsumer electronics, network PCs, minicomputer systems, mainframecomputer systems, and distributed cloud computing environments thatinclude any of the above systems or devices, and the like.

Computer system/server 12 may be described in the general context ofcomputer system-executable instructions, such as program modules, beingexecuted by a computer system. Generally, program modules may includeroutines, programs, objects, components, logic, data structures, and soon that perform particular tasks or implement particular abstract datatypes. Computer system/server 12 may be practiced in distributed cloudcomputing environments where tasks are performed by remote processingdevices that are linked through a communications network. In adistributed cloud computing environment, program modules may be locatedin both local and remote computer system storage media including memorystorage devices.

As shown in FIG. 1, computer system/server 12 in cloud computing node 10is shown in the form of a general-purpose computing device. Thecomponents of computer system/server 12 may include, but are not limitedto, one or more processors or processing units 16, a system memory 28,and a bus 18 that couples various system components including systemmemory 28 to processor 16.

Bus 18 represents one or more of any of several types of bus structures,including a memory bus or memory controller, a peripheral bus, anaccelerated graphics port, and a processor or local bus using any of avariety of bus architectures. By way of example, and not limitation,such architectures include Industry Standard Architecture (ISA) bus,Micro Channel Architecture (MCA) bus, Enhanced ISA (EISA) bus, VideoElectronics Standards Association (VESA) local bus, and PeripheralComponent Interconnects (PCI) bus.

Computer system/server 12 typically includes a variety of computersystem readable media. Such media may be any available media that isaccessible by computer system/server 12, and it includes both volatileand non-volatile media, removable and non-removable media.

System memory 28 can include computer system readable media in the formof volatile memory, such as random access memory (RAM) 30 and/or cachememory 32. Computer system/server 12 may further include otherremovable/non-removable, volatile/non-volatile computer system storagemedia. By way of example only, storage system 34 can be provided forreading from and writing to a non-removable, non-volatile magnetic media(not shown and typically called a “hard drive”). Although not shown, amagnetic disk drive for reading from and writing to a removable,non-volatile magnetic disk (e.g., a “floppy disk”), and an optical diskdrive for reading from or writing to a removable, non-volatile opticaldisk such as a CD-ROM, DVD-ROM or other optical media can be provided.In such instances, each can be connected to bus 18 by one or more datamedia interfaces. As will be further depicted and described below,memory 28 may include at least one program product having a set (e.g.,at least one) of program modules that are configured to carry out thefunctions of embodiments of the invention.

Program/utility 40, having a set (at least one) of program modules 42,may be stored in memory 28 by way of example, and not limitation, aswell as an operating system, one or more application programs, otherprogram modules, and program data. Each of the operating system, one ormore application programs, other program modules, and program data orsome combination thereof, may include an implementation of a networkingenvironment. Program modules 42 generally carry out the functions and/ormethodologies of embodiments of the invention as described herein.

Computer system/server 12 may also communicate with one or more externaldevices 14 such as a keyboard, a pointing device, a display 24, etc.;one or more devices that enable a user to interact with computersystem/server 12; and/or any devices (e.g., network card, modem, etc.)that enable computer system/server 12 to communicate with one or moreother computing devices. Such communication can occur via Input/Output(I/O) interfaces 22. Still yet, computer system/server 12 cancommunicate with one or more networks such as a local area network(LAN), a general wide area network (WAN), and/or a public network (e.g.,the Internet) via network adapter 20. As depicted, network adapter 20communicates with the other components of computer system/server 12 viabus 18. It should be understood that although not shown, other hardwareand/or software components could be used in conjunction with computersystem/server 12. Examples, include, but are not limited to: microcode,device drivers, redundant processing units, external disk drive arrays,RAID systems, tape drives, and data archival storage systems, etc.

Referring now to FIG. 2, illustrative cloud computing environment 50 isdepicted. As shown, cloud computing environment 50 comprises one or morecloud computing nodes 10 with which local computing devices used bycloud consumers, such as, for example, personal digital assistant (PDA)or cellular telephone 54A, desktop computer 54B, laptop computer 54C,and/or automobile computer system 54N may communicate. Nodes 10 maycommunicate with one another. They may be grouped (not shown) physicallyor virtually, in one or more networks, such as Private, Community,Public, or Hybrid clouds as described hereinabove, or a combinationthereof. This allows cloud computing environment 50 to offerinfrastructure, platforms and/or software as services for which a cloudconsumer does not need to maintain resources on a local computingdevice. It is understood that the types of computing devices 54A-N shownin FIG. 2 are intended to be illustrative only and that computing nodes10 and cloud computing environment 50 can communicate with any type ofcomputerized device over any type of network and/or network addressableconnection (e.g., using a web browser).

Referring now to FIG. 3, a set of functional abstraction layers providedby cloud computing environment 50 (FIG. 2) is shown. It should beunderstood in advance that the components, layers, and functions shownin FIG. 3 are intended to be illustrative only and embodiments of theinvention are not limited thereto. As depicted, the following layers andcorresponding functions are provided:

Hardware and software or infrastructure layer (L_(I)) 60 includeshardware and software components or elements. Examples of hardwarecomponents include: mainframes 61; RISC (Reduced Instruction SetComputer) architecture based servers 62; servers 63; blade servers 64;storage devices 65; and networks and networking appliances andcomponents 66. In some embodiments, software components include networkapplication server software (e.g., Windows and Linux) 67 and databasesoftware 68.

Virtualization or application layer (L_(A)) 70 provides an abstractionlayer from which the following examples of virtual entities may beprovided: virtual servers 71; virtual storage 72; virtual networks 73,including virtual private networks; virtual applications and operatingsystems (e.g., eBusiness software, Enterprise resource planning (ERP)software and customer relationship management (CRM) software) 74; andvirtual clients 75.

In one example, management layer 80 may provide the functions describedbelow. Resource provisioning 81 provides dynamic procurement ofcomputing resources and other resources that are utilized to performtasks within the cloud computing environment. Metering and Pricing 82provide cost tracking as resources are utilized within the cloudcomputing environment, and billing or invoicing for consumption of theseresources. In one example, these resources may comprise applicationsoftware licenses. Security provides identity verification for cloudconsumers and tasks, as well as protection for data and other resources.User portal 83 provides access to the cloud computing environment forconsumers and system administrators. Service level management 84provides cloud computing resource allocation and management such thatrequired service levels are met. Service Level Agreement (SLA) planningand fulfillment 85 provide pre-arrangement for, and procurement of,cloud computing resources for which a future requirement is anticipatedin accordance with an SLA.

Workloads layer, also referred to as the business process layer (L_(BP))90 with regard to the present invention, provides examples offunctionality for which the cloud computing environment may be utilized.Examples of workloads and functions which may be provided from thislayer include: mapping and navigation 91; software development andlifecycle management 92; virtual classroom education delivery 93; clientsupport including data analytics processing 94; transaction processing(e.g., sales and billing) 95; and specialized business applications suchas enterprise management governance 96.

Typically, service level management 84 and SLA planning and fulfillment85 (management layer 80) schedule interventions to address changes andservice requests or even unexpected incidents. These interventions applyto elements (E) in the other three layers, e.g., at infrastructure levelin hardware and software layer 60 (where network application serversoftware 67 and database software 68 are considered infrastructure), atapplications level in virtualization layer 70, and/or at the businessprocess level in workloads layer 90. Interventions in any aspect of ITprovided for an organization may trigger activities and modificationsaffecting stability of dependent businesses. Selecting the optimum timefor an intervention requires predicting how deeply the interventionmight affect all related IT system elements and related environmentsover a given time frame; and further, requires predicting how respectivedependent business might be affected by those affected elements andenvironments.

The present invention characterizes individual impacts to elements (E)moment by moment (T) in the infrastructure layer (L_(I)) 60,applications layer (L_(A)) 70 and business process layer (L_(BP)) 90 todetermine an overall system impact (I) on clients during a time frame([T_(I),T_(F)]) for applying an intervention. Thus, system managementand support may select a time within that time frame that minimizesundesired system instability and reduces the likelihood of any criticalsituations occurring that may undesirably impact client businesses.

FIG. 4 shows an example of an impact estimation support tool 100 inresource provisioning unit 81 used by service level management 84 andSLA planning and fulfillment 85 support teams to quantify the potentialoverall impact of interventions at discrete instances or time intervalsduring a selected time window, according to a preferred embodiment ofthe present invention. The preferred impact estimation support tool 100quantifies local impacts (I(L,E,T)) from an intervention to considerindividual impacts at each level 60, 70, 90 during each interval orperiod (T_(I)≤T≤T_(F)). Since individual impacts on elements on eachlayer may have more or less effect on the overall business impact overthe other layers, local impacts (I(L,E,T)) are weighted by layer weights(α_(BP), α_(A), α_(I)), indicating that importance of the impacts on thefinal impact, i.e., I(E,T)=f(α_(BP)*I(L_(BP),E,T), α_(A)*I(L_(A),E,T),α_(I)*I(L_(I),E,T)).

A preferred estimation support tool 100 includes network information102, a criticality matrix 104, a collection 106 of links to businessimpacts, collected expert knowledge 108, an application dependencymapper 110 and a description of situational factors 112. The estimationsupport tool 100 propagates intervention inputs through connectedelements at various affected system levels or layers, including theinfrastructure level (in hardware and software layer) 60, theapplications level (virtualization layer) 70; and/or the businessprocess level (workloads layer) 90 to estimate individual and collectiveimpacts. The estimation support tool 100 gives SLA planning andfulfillment 85 the ability to test various, “what if,” scenarios tocollectively simulate and predict specific intervention impacts duringselected time windows. These predictions indicate suitable times withinthe selected time windows for performing intervention associated tasks.

The network information (N(E)) 102 or alternately, neighborhoodtopology, may describe the connections among the elements (servers,applications or business processes) that are reachable from element E.

The criticality matrix (CM(E)) 104 indicates or quantifies how criticaleach infrastructure element E is over the whole system. This mayinclude, for example, any infrastructure level 60 criticalityinformation for any physical device, i.e., hardware component 61, 62,63, 64, 65, 66, 67, 68.

Business impacts links (CBI(e)) 106 match IT elements and customerbusiness impacts at the business process level 90. The business impactslinks may be based on, for example, contract SLA information andfinancial impact information.

The expert knowledge (EK(E,T_(I),T_(F))) 108 contains practicalexperience information collected from subject-matter experts (SMEs) orfrom logs/historical data of previous interventions. Experts can addexpert knowledge 108 to endorse expectations regarding the effect causedby an element (E) at each layer 60, 70, 90 during the time window.

The application dependency mapper (DMA(E)) 110 maps application layerdependencies between elements (E) among the impacted elements. Theapplication dependency mapper (DMA(E)) 110 may be. for example, the IBM®Tivoli® Application Dependency Discovery Manager (TADDM).

The situational factors (S(T_(I),T_(F))) 112 includes factors affectingthe particular enterprise during the time period. Situational factors112 may impact application layer 70 and/or business process layer 90elements and include, for example, seasonality information, describingexemptions and peak seasonal information about the business customerbusiness during the time window [T_(I),T_(F)]. Business seasonalityinformation may include, for example, fixed and optional holidays,vacation, business calendars, business day start and finish times,expected workload peak dates, and projected expected lower performancedates from capacity planning. It should be noted that expert knowledge108 and situational factors 112 may impact elements in each layer 60,70, 90, weighting each to increase or decrease impact.

FIG. 5 shows an example of service level management 84 and SLA planningand fulfillment 85 support teams quantifying the potential overallimpact (I(E,T)) of interventions 120 over time window [T_(I),T_(F)],using the impact estimation support tool 100 in FIG. 4, according to apreferred embodiment of the present invention. Essentially, thepreferred estimation support tool 100 iteratively determines I(E,T)moment by moment for each interval or time period (T_(I)≤T≤T_(F)).

When the support team(s) receives a change request 122 requiring anintervention that triggers a change to a client configuration, theestimation support tool 100 retrieves change/service information inputs124 about the request. The change/service information inputs 124 maylist elements involved in the intervention, schedule options and timewindows.

The preferred estimation support tool 100 also identifies systemelements 126, i.e., elements in each layer that are likely to beimpacted by changes from the intervention. These system elements may beidentified, for example, from network information/topology 102 andmapped dependencies from the dependency mapper 110 for each affectedelement in infrastructure layer 60, application layer 70, and businessprocess layer 90. The preferred estimation support tool 100 identifiesall elements affected, directly or indirectly, by the intervention.

Next, the estimation support tool 100 collects element information 128for affected elements. Collected information may include situationalinformation 112 as well as current and historical information related tothe affected elements. The preferred estimation support tool 100 alsogenerates weights from the collected element information based onconfiguration parameters for each layer 60, 70, 90. Historicalinformation includes prior impacts to each affected element in previousinterventions x component and, for example, may be from previous impactprojections or from actual change history, previous changeauthorizations, root cause analysis (RCA), and previous change tickets.

Then, the estimation support tool 100 collects standardized businessprocess impact criticalities 130 from SLA planning and fulfillment 85,and criticality information for all affected elements from criticalitymatrix 104. These business process criticalities 130 indicate theimportance of layer by layer impacts on the final impact, which theestimation support tool 100 uses to determine layer weights (α_(BP),α_(A), α_(I)).

Next, for the current instance or moment the estimation support tool 100identifies impact exemptions 132 (e. g., for a peak season and/orseasonality) for each input based on change window times, and determinesinitial element impacts I(L,E,T) 134, and overall determines impactbetween start time and finish time. Thus in identifying impactexemptions 132, the estimation support tool 100 may collect anyseasonality data that potentially impact the change, e.g., peak seasondates, holidays, exemption dates and/or any time lost from impacts to acustomer's business.

The estimation support tool 100 collects 136 any available expertknowledge 108 with regard to the intervention. The estimation supporttool 100 adjusts the weights based on expert knowledge 108recommendations regarding the overall effect of each affected element ineach layer 60, 70, 90.

Then, the estimation support tool 100 determines individual layerimpacts 138, e.g., correlating initial impacts to the particularbusiness as identified in the business impacts links 106, and determinesfinal, overall impact for the current moment.

The estimation support tool 100 simulates the intervention to determinethe overall impact 140 for the current instant (i.e., a time slice inthe selected time frame) for the entire business process, as propagatedthrough the entire process in all affected elements in layers 60, 70 and90 for each schedule input. The simulation results are a detailed reportof the expected impact for each given period of time.

Optionally, there may be additional simulation conditions for analysise.g., on a different date or time of day. For example, the first passmay have yielded impacts that are too high during initial time frame.Since the initial results are unacceptable, support may decide 142 torerun the simulation for another time frame or date. The estimationsupport tool 100 returns to retrieve request information 124 for eachsubsequent time slice within the new time frame or at the date. When thesimulation achieve satisfactory results 142, analysis is complete 144.

FIGS. 6A and B show a simple example of application of the presentinvention to a cloud 150 providing business process support to a toptier bank 152 and a severity ticket 154 showing the average impactresulting from an intervention on two infrastructure layer 160 servers162, 163 supporting the bank 152. In this example, the infrastructurelayer (L_(I)) 160, application layer (L_(A)) 170 and business processlayer (L_(BP)) 190 are substantially similar to the infrastructure layer60, application layer 70 and business process layer 90 of FIG. 3.

The infrastructure layer 160 includes Unix server 162; Unix web server163; storage devices 165; and, networking infrastructure 166, networkUnix application server software 167 and banking database software 168.The application layer 170 includes virtual servers 171; virtual storage172; virtual networks 173, e.g., for online banking; eBusiness andbanking software applications, ERP software, CRM software and securitysoftware 174; and banking clients 175, e.g., online banking andautomated teller machines (ATMs). Likewise, the business process layer190 includes banking client support 194; banking transaction (e.g.,billing and sales) processing 195; banking management and governance196; specialized banking applications 197, e.g., Electronic datainterchange (EDI); and, Home Broker system 198.

Business process layer 190 functions may be continuously used oravailable, periodically used or available, randomly used or available,or some combination thereof. In this example, normal banking and brokerservices, such as banking client support 194 EDI and Home Broker system198, which has worldwide use and is available to millions of users fordaily stock exchange operations, may be active during normal businesshours. Banking transaction processing 195 and some specialized bankingapplications 197 may be active mostly after business hours, e.g., forbank to bank transfers, end of day bookkeeping and accounting. Bankingmanagement and governance 196 and other specialized banking applications197 may be active at the end of specific business periods, e.g., end ofthe week, month, quarter and fiscal year. Determining how any particularintervention will affect the bank 152 and its customers, depends on whatbusiness process layer 190 functions are active and when.

Banking software applications, ERP software, CRM software and securitysoftware 174, and especially the Unix security software, requiresfrequent patches. For example, Unix security software may be patched toaddress newly identified security threats to prevent security breaches.Depending on the extent of each patch, interventions required forapplying the patches may range from seamless, unobtrusive updates tofull Unix operating system restarts, and even server 162, 163 reboots.The bank 152 support team has a Unix operating system team thatschedules interventions for installing security. The bank 152 also hasofficial schedule options for scheduling for system interventions.

If the Home Broker system is not installed directly on the serversinvolved in the intervention, for example, patching security will have amuch greater impact during some periods than others, e.g., on workdaysas opposed to holidays and/or weekends. Previously, the Unix teamtypically, was unaware of the full and immediate effects of anyintervention, directly or indirectly impacting the Home Broker system.Moreover, the Unix team was also unaware of any individual impact oninfrastructure (i.e., on a given server or group of servers), on activeapplications and on active business processes, or the level of aggregateimpact. So for example, applying a patch to one server 163 may be a highlevel, severity level 1, impact. That level 1 impact to server 163requires temporarily taking that sever 163 off line. With that server163 off line, the other server(s) 162 must quickly increase workload tocompensate for the loss of server 163, balancing workload(s). Theincreased workload may cause frequent user connection rejections fromthe Home Banking system.

In the graphical example 154 of FIG. 6B, however, both servers 162, 163are taken off line during an intervention, either denying some servicesto clients during the intervention or with other servers (not shown)compensating for the temporary loss of servers 162, 163. Taking server162 has less impact (level 2) on services, than the severity level 1impact for server 163. Further, the impact of taking server 162 toapplication layer 170 elements, virtual networks 173, is less (level 3)and business process layer 190 elements banking management andgovernance 196 even less (level 4).

Similarly, the severity level 1 impact from taking down server 163directly impacts virtual servers 171 and security software 174 (level2), which in turn impact banking transaction processing 195 and HomeBroker system 198 at level 3. The level 3 impact to business processlayer 190 elements 195, 198 impacts banking client support 194 and EDI197 at level 4.

A preferred impact estimation support tool 100, however, graphicalidentifies impacts for the Unix team, e.g., using a typical graphicaluser interface (GUI). The GUI graphically displays specific impacts ateach level and aggregate effects from interventions.

FIG. 7 shows a graphical example the overall impact 200 of anintervention, e.g., using a GUI. In this example, impact magnitude 202may range from seamless with no impact (0.0) to completely halting theHome Broker system maximum impact (1.0). The preferred impact estimationsupport tool 100 quantifies impact magnitude 202 moment by moment attime intervals 204 over time 206 for the selected time window [T_(I),T_(F)]. The Unix team can designate an acceptable impact level or impactthreshold, on the order of 0.37 in this example. The impact thresholdidentifies any periods 208 within which patching should be avoided.Further, this designated impact threshold indicates that a patchingintervention incurs acceptable impacts both prior 210 and after 212,that/those unacceptable period(s) 208. Thus quantifying overall impact200, the Unix team may identify specific, otherwise hidden impacts toschedule intervention options to minimize business impacts.

Advantageously, the preferred impact estimation support tool providesfor impact level evaluation of interventions. These impact levelevaluations allow support teams to select an optimal time for applyingan intervention for minimal customer disruption. The impacts may beviewed graphically for assessing, considering and distinguishingimpacts, e.g., to business process, infrastructure and/or applicationlayers. Thus, IT system support can minimize intervention impacts to anyenterprise or business. The present invention provides support with anappropriate measurement of intervention impacts for better evaluatingand comparing alternate interventions. Further, the present inventionfacilitates better organizational control for IT environmental changes,focusing more attention on higher impact changes. Support teams have acapability of identifying real impacts of interventions on core customerbusiness activities with greater accuracy. Moreover, the presentinvention reduces decision making risks, through simulating the effectsof each intervention for a given time interval, allowing support toavoid performing interventions during periods of highest exposure.

The descriptions of the various embodiments of the present inventionhave been presented for purposes of illustration, but are not intendedto be exhaustive or limited to the embodiments disclosed. Manymodifications and variations will be apparent to those of ordinary skillin the art without departing from the scope and spirit of the describedembodiments. The terminology used herein was chosen to best explain theprinciples of the embodiments, the practical application or technicalimprovement over technologies found in the marketplace, or to enableothers of ordinary skill in the art to understand the embodimentsdisclosed herein.

What is claimed is:
 1. A method of applying interventions to allocatedresources, said method comprising: receiving a change request requestingchanges in a shared resource system; identifying shared resource systemelements (E) affected by implementing the requested change; determiningindividual impacts (I(L,E,T)) to elements in each shared resource systemlayer (L) at a given time (T) in a selected time frame ([T_(I),T_(F)]);weighting local impacts by layer, such that layer weights indicate theimportance of layer impacts on final impact; determining an overallimpact (I(E,T)) to client activity at said given time responsive to saidweighted local impacts; returning to determining individual impacts at anext given time (T₁≤T≤T_(F)) until said next given time is after saidselected time frame; determining a time within said time frame having aminimum overall impact for implementing said requested change; andimplementing said requested change to said shared resource system atsaid determined time.
 2. A method of applying interventions as in claim1, wherein identifying said shared resource system elements (E)comprises collecting network information describing connections amongthe elements that are reachable from each element E and mappeddependencies between elements among the elements impacted elements(N(E)).
 3. A method of applying interventions as in claim 1, whereinsaid layers include an infrastructure layer (L_(I)), an applicationlayer (L_(A)) and a business process layer (L_(BP)), and determiningsaid overall impact comprises: collecting element information foraffected elements including situational information, and current andhistorical element information; and weighting said local impacts.
 4. Amethod of applying interventions as in claim 1, wherein weighting saidlocal impacts comprises: collecting standardized business process impactcriticalities; collecting criticality information for all affectedelements from a criticality matrix, collected criticalities indicatinglayer by layer impact importance on final impact; and determining layerweights (α_(BP), α_(A), α_(I)) responsive to said collectedcriticalities, such that layer weights indicate the importance of layerimpacts on said final impact.
 5. A method of applying interventions asin claim 4, wherein overall impact has the form:I(E,T)=f(I_(BP)*I(L_(BP),E,T), α_(A)*I(L_(A),E,T), α_(I)*I(L_(I),E,T)).6. A method of applying interventions as in claim 1, wherein determiningsaid time within said time frame comprises displaying impactsgraphically in a graphical user interface (GUI).
 7. A computer programproduct for applying interventions to allocated resources, said computerprogram product comprising a non-transitory computer usable mediumhaving computer readable program code stored thereon, said computerreadable program code causing one or more computers executing said codeto: receive a change request requesting changes in a shared resourcesystem; identify shared resource system elements (E) affected byimplementing the requested change; determine individual impacts(I(L,E,T)) to elements in each shared resource system layer (L) at agiven time (T) in a selected time frame ([T_(I),T_(F)]); weight localimpacts by layer, such that layer weights indicate the importance oflayer impacts on final impact; determine an overall impact (I(E,T)) toclient activity at said given time responsive to said weighted localimpacts; return to determining individual impacts at a next given time(T_(I)≤T≤T_(F)) until said next given time is after said selected timeframe; determine a time within said time frame having a minimum overallimpact for implementing said requested change; and implement saidrequested change to said shared resource system at said determined time.8. A computer program product for applying interventions as in claim 7,wherein identifying said shared resource system elements (E) comprisescollecting network information describing connections among the elementsthat are reachable from each element E and mapped dependencies betweenelements among the elements impacted elements (N(E)).
 9. A computerprogram product for applying interventions as in claim 8, wherein saidlayers include an infrastructure layer (L_(I)), an application layer(L_(A)) and a business process layer (L_(BP)), and said computerreadable program code causing said one or more computers to determinesaid overall impact causes said one or more computers to: collectelement information for affected elements including situationalinformation, and current and historical element information; collectstandardized business process impact criticalities; collect criticalityinformation for all affected elements from a criticality matrix,collected criticalities indicating layer by layer impact importance onfinal impact; and determine layer weights (α_(BP), α_(A), α_(I))responsive to said collected criticalities.
 10. A computer programproduct for applying interventions as in claim 9, wherein overall impacthas the form: I(E,T)=f(α_(BP)*I(L_(BP),E,T), α_(A)*I(L_(A),E,T),α₁*I(L_(I),E,T)), and wherein said computer readable program codecausing said one or more computers to determine said time within saidtime frame causes said one or more computers to display impactsgraphically in a graphical user interface (GUI).